EURUSD fundamental :
Dollar Weakens After The Rate Cut Decision
Overall, the market is extending the gains compared with the dollar, after the Fed decided to cut 50 basis points from the overnight rate. This is, for the first time in the last few months, when the currency market is posting such strong gains.
The Euro (Eur/Usd) led the market higher against the dollar yesterday, after it strengthened 150 pips. However, the pair had some very big problems at The LFB R1 (1.2990), which it failed to break during the U.S. session. However, the resistance area fell very easy in the Asian session, after the pair advanced almost 200 pips.
EURUSD technical :
Upward movement should be limited in range 1.3294 - 1.3856 (38.2% - 61.8% fib retracement).
eurusd technical :
as you can see the purple-shaded area, we can say it's the path the price should climb to. The impulse is over and now entering the corrective-waves mode,we should pay more attention in this mode. We suggest not to trade. Waiting any confirmatory signal to open any position (OPB or OPS).
what theory said :
The foremost aim of wave classification is to determine where prices are in the stock market's progression. This exercise is easy as long as the wave counts are clear, as in fast-moving, emotional markets, particularly in impulse waves, when minor movements generally unfold in an uncomplicated manner. In these cases, short term charting is necessary to view all subdivisions. However, in lethargic or choppy markets, particularly in corrections, wave structures are more likely to be complex and slow to develop. In these cases, longer term charts often effectively condense the action into a form that clarifies the pattern in progress. With a proper reading of the Wave Principle, there are times when sideways trends can be forecasted (for instance, for a fourth wave when wave two is a zigzag). Even when anticipated, though, complexity and lethargy are two of the most frustrating occurrences for the analyst. Nevertheless, they are part of the reality of the market and must be taken into account. The authors highly recommend that during such periods you take some time off from the market to enjoy the fruits of your hard work. You can't "wish" the market into action; it isn't listening. When the market rests, do the same. : page 70-71 EWP 10th Edition.
EURUSD Fundamental :Historic Relief Rally Brings HopeU.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gave up gains against all except the yen as worlds stocks surged on bargain hunting. CB Consumer Confidence Plummeted but that was ignored as the rally that began in Asia spread to the Europe and then the US. Expectations of a Fed Rate Cut were combined with news that the Bank of Japan might also cut rates. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 143 points (9.53%) and the Dow Jones was up 899 points (10.88%). Crude Oil closed down -$0.49 ending the New York session at $62.73 per barrel. Looking ahead, September Durable Good Orders are expected at -1.5% vs. -3.3% previously. Also released the FOMC statement widely expected to contain a 0.5% rate cut.The Euro (EUR) capitalized on surging stocks by breaking the key 1.25 level and consolidating. The late Dow surge induced the run up to resistance at 1.2800 in early Asia. GFK German Consumer Sentiment unexpectedly jumped to 1.9 vs. 1.5 expected and the German Stock market surged 11%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2331 and a high of 1.2791 before closing the day at 1.2520 in the New York session.US Dollar: What Impact Will the Federal Reserve's Rate Decision Have?The US dollar strengthened for much of the morning, only to plunge at the end of the day as a nearly 11 percent surge in US stock markets drained demand for safe-haven assets. US economic data released at 10:00 ET worked in favor of dollar weakness, but the greater trend was the rise in equities and risk appetite.
EURUSD Fundamental :
Yen Weakens on Nikkei Rebound and Intervention Talk, Euro and Pound GainThe Yen would weaken as risk appetite increased after the Nikkei Index bounced from support at 7,000. It was the first time in 26 years that the index had reached that low and the increase in risk appetite would send the USDJPY gaining over 300 points and reaching as high as 96.215. Continued talk of intervention from the BoJ following the G-7 statement that the volatility surrounding the currency was a concern led to the first losses versus the dollar and Euro in a week. Despite the rhetoric, the chances of action from the MoF may be slim as the impact may be minimal at current market conditions. Continued risk appetite may lead to the Yen trading heavy throughout the week.The Euro would benefit from the increased risk appetite rising to as high as 1.2590 before finding resistance. The move higher was despite more affirmation from ECB President Trichet that another rate cut is likely at the central bank's November 6th meeting. The MPC leader would acknowledge that price pressures have abated enough to allow the central bank to put aside its price stability mandate and focus on growth. Although talk of a coordinated rate cut has been talked about it appears that policy makers will continue easing according to their scheduled policy meetings. Meanwhile, Germany and France released conflicting consumer sentiment reports, as Germans became more optimistic on declining oil prices as the French concerns grew over the credit crisis. The German consumer confidence reading improved to 1.9 from 1.8 as the French printed a decline to -47 from -44. The Euro may continue to gain on increasing risk appetite and an expected rate cut from the Fed. However, as we get closer to the ECB policy meeting we may see the Euro weaken as the central bank may signal that a prolonged easing policy is forthcoming following their expected 25 bops rate cut.Daily Report: Yen Retreats as Stock Rebounds, Dollar to Follow? The Japanese yen retreats further today following rebound in Asian stock markets as well as increased speculation of intervention. Nikkei is up more than 6% after hitting a 26 years low yesterday. MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up over 2% after closing at the lowest level since Aug 2003 yesterday. There are also increased speculations of intervention after G7 issued a statement over the weekend expressing it's concern on the strength of yen's exchange rate. Though, the possibility of coordinated intervention is not likely at this moment after French Finance Minister Lagarde said this will be a "pure Japanese" intervention. Technically speaking, as discussed before, USD/JPY has made a short term bottom at 90.92 last week. Development in other yen crosses indicates that short term bottom should be formed there too. Though, there is still no change in the medium term bearish outlook and the down trend is still expected to extend further after completing the current rebound. Focus should now turns to the whether the greenback has topped out in short term too. Intraday momentum of dollar index is seen diminishing with mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. A break below 86.65 minor support will argue that a short term top is in place at 87.87 after the index fails below 100% projection of 75.89 to 83.18 from 80.75 at 88.04.
EURUSD Fundamental :EUR Preliminary Manufacturing Data Horrid, Euro-Zone Likely in Recession Moving on, European data showed that the preliminary release of October's manufacturing PMI slid to 41.3, far below expectations. The services sector also showed a sharper contraction falling to 46.9. The data suggests that the Euro-zone is likely already in a recession, and now expectations for its severity and length are becoming more pessimistic. The ECB cut rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% as part of a global coordinated move to reduce borrowing costs earlier in the month. Now, expectations are that the Governing Council will slash rates another 50 basis points in their meeting next month. Looking ahead to next week, traders will continue to look for a stock market bottom and end to US dollar strength. Shifts in risk appetite have been extremely erratic, sending currencies straight through key support/resistance levels without even pausing, and as a result, it is very dangerous to try to catch turns. That said, the US economic calendar is chock full of market-moving data next week, and all of it has the potential to lead the greenback to finally decline.Euro Dives Amidst Evidence of Q3 Economic Contraction, ECB Rate CutsThe euro fell roughly 300 points during the European trading session to an intraday low of 1.2494 on Friday as data from the region was broadly disappointing. In fact, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for both the Euro-zone services and manufacturing sectors held below 50 for the fifth consecutive month, signaling a contraction in business activity and suggesting that the region will be one of the next to release negative Q3 GDP results. Furthermore, the composite index fell to the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1998. Keeping this in mind, Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are pricing in nearly 125bps worth of rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the next 12 months, and there is some speculation that the bank will enact a 25bp reduction as soon as next month. The potential for lower interest rates presents further downside risks for the euro, but with the Federal Reserve expected to cut US rates as soon as next week, EUR/USD could bounce higher in the near-term.
EURUSD Fundamental :
The USD was bid again in NY trading following up on overnight gains. Good USD demand on the back of a global financial crisis ostensibly was behind the moves. EUR/USD plunged nearly -150 pips in the session towards the 1.3070 area. The 1.3050 level now looms as critical support. Dollar strength coupled with a more modest than expected -25 bps rate cut by the Bank of Canada had USD/CAD soaring 75 pips to new highs. The pair ran into a barrier just above the 1.2200 mark but the upside bias remains while above the previous 1.2130 pivot.
EURUSD Current Price : 1.3067
EURUSD Target : optimistic;for long term is 1.2813 – it will takes time.
EURUSD Technical : EURUSD Retracement should be limited to 1.3224 or we can say more than 50.0%. This retracement will be complex. Pay attention on stochastic oscillator in all time frame – M5 to Weekly – all are in OS area, weakened -DI on ADX, this is a sign the pair will sideways for long time or it will blows to the upside depend on any news released for today. Scalping-style is needed here.
EURUSD Current Price : 1.3333.
EURUSD Target : Not set yet.
EURUSD Technical :
Waiting her to retrace 38.2% - 50.0 % - 61.8% on 1.3380 –1.3408 - 1.3436. Confirmation that pair will goes down has already there and EURUSD going to retrace more than 38.2%.
Fundamental :
The euro has remained weak…
The US dollar's moves on Friday constituted little more than a broad consolidation across the majors as the currency hardly shifted from Thursday's close. While there were some signs of stabilization in the markets, such as the drop in overnight interest rates, there were also indications that high volatility and lower liquidity will leave the markets prone to wild price swings. Indeed, the CBOE's VIX Volatility Index continues to trade dangerously close to Thursday's record high of 81.17 while the latest forex positioning report shows that open interest in pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD has been declining steadily, signaling lower liquidity. Overall, this leaves the notion of risk aversion in play, which tends to benefit the US dollar and explains why the currency was able to shrug off this morning's disappointing economic releases.
Clearly the US economy is at risk of recession, and this is why fed fund futures are pricing in a 25bp-50bp rate cut on October 29. Under normal circumstances, this would contribute to US dollar weakness but with risk trends remaining the primary driver of the markets, safe-haven flows have supported the greenback quite a bit.
The euro has remained weak due to a variety of factors, including broad US dollar strength due to safe-haven flows as well as negative interest rate expectations. According to our latest forex positioning report, the FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has recently flipped from net long EUR/USD to net short, and as a contrarian indicator, suggests that the pair could gain. There is no major European data scheduled to be released next week, but if we see that volatility dies down a bit and equities gain, the EUR/USD retracement higher could come sooner rather than later.
EURUSD Current Price : 1.3410
EURUSD Technical :
1. First she goes up to 1.3458 or more
2. After touch that price (1.3458) then she will goes down – wait for any confirmation on Stochastic Osc. in TF M5, M15 and M30 entering Overbought area. If it confirmed then we’ll go short to 1.3421.
3. After all those completed/closed wait until she is completing forming the wave.
4. Be aware of breaking any trendlines. She could breakthrough to 1.3515 1.3760 on upward or 1.3349 and 1.3260 on downward.
EURUSD Current Price: 1.3467
Intermediate Target : 1.3532 – 1.3500 on the upward and 1.3443 - 1.3418 on the downward (ranging).
Technical : This retracement of wave 4 in H1 should limited to 1.3532 and wave 5 will undergo to 1.3457 or more(1.3443 - 1.3418). In lower degree TF the waves now form a corrective patterns. In general she goes up first.
Fundamental : The Usd seems to be the currency of choice for risk averse investors, gaining across the majors. The EurUsd fell approximately 100 pips to the low range of 1.35, while the UsdJpy also retraced back to the high 100 price area. The GbpUsd slipped roughly 50 pips to the mid 1.73 area based following the general trend trading in the market place. Equity markets retracted in the US and Europe with the Dow down over 500pts, falling back below the 9000 level. Bond yields collapsed with the 2yr treasury tighter by 22bps at 1.59% and the 10yr in by 10bps at 3.98%. Commodities declined with the exception of gold which rose nearly 1% to 843, investors are clearly migrating to more secure assets in today’s session.
There was light data out of the Eurozone today, the Euro fell against the dollar which is consistent with the risk aversion trade we’ve seen recently. As the equity markets selloff, both the Euro and Cable follow suit, as well as oil which seems to be the new risk aversion. In the UK, employment data worsened with the ILO figures rising by 0.2% to an unemployment rate of 5.7%. Economists expect the unemployment to rise in the near-term with weaker corporate earnings and overall slowing growth. As economic fundamentals come back into play we are likely to see further declines throughout the G10.
The dollar displays a higher degree of correlation to price behavior in treasuries and equities, this trend is likely to continue until the market move towards a stage of stabilization. We hold a bullish stance on the Usd versus the majors, and a strong likelihood that central banks will be prompted to cut rates further closing the gap in yield differentials.
Current Price : 1.3612
Target : Trading range 1.3573 to 1.3669.
Technical : wave forming in H1 or higher not confirmed yet but in lower time frame,M30, is forming wave 4. Limit trading should applied. Put attention in truncation in wave 5.
Current Price is 1.3566. Narrow trading-range between 1.3534 to 1.3600. Good for scalping or wait Europe Session.
Current Price : 1.3650
Target : Heading north to retracement 38.2%. Target 1.3720 - 1.3780 - 1.3986 (ranging)
Current Price : 1.3401
Intermediate Target : from 1.3401 go up first or sideway then 1.3240 – 1.2910 – 1.2369 (ranging).
Technical : wave 3 in wave III in larger degree but wait for confirmation in Asia session. Stoch osc shows oversold - go up first or sideway till it up out from Oversold area then go down. 1.3986 is 38.2% retracement.
Fundamental : Eurozone is weaker than US.
Current Price: 1.3592
Intermediate Target : 1.3559 – 1.3527 – 1.3425 (ranging).
Technical : this could be down ward impulse wave 3 and confirmed.
Fundamental :
Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks slid and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 9,000 for the first time since 2003 as higher borrowing costs and slower consumer spending spurred concern carmakers, insurers and energy companies will be the next victims of the credit crisis.
Markets Plunge During the Last 2 Hours
The markets experienced a huge sell off in the last 2 hours of trading, with the DOW falling below 9000 for the first time in 5 years. Part of the move was attributed to the expiration of short-selling rules. Banks and brokerages in the S&P 500 lost 2.3% after the three-week ban on naked short selling by the Securities and Exchange Commission expired. GM fell more than 30% while shares of Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch fell 25%.
Current Price: 1.3681
Intermediate Target : 1.3759– 1.3832(Ranging).
Current Price: 1.3643
Intermediate Target : 1.3600 – 13550 (Ranging).
Technical : big-boys seems want to take it down.
Fundamental : the world's financial markets could stabilize a bit after yesterday's spike low and another round of panic selling would probably be delayed after the rumors of coordinated rate cuts becomes news. Technically speaking, we'd expect Dow to plunge further to below 9000 level after the current recovery and thus, another round of yen, and to a lesser extent dollar, buying is still expected after the current consolidation.
Current Price : 1.3500
Technical : Technically price will move up to 1.3559 - 1.3633 - 1.3773 (ranging) as an
extension in wave III of larger degree to enter OverBought area of Stochastic Oscillator (TF
H1 and H4). We see this as a consolidation before deep thrust takes place.
Fundamental : The euro sank to a 13-month low against the dollar in Asian trade Monday, hit by signs of escalating financial turmoil in Europe. After the US Congress finally passed a Wall Street bailout bill, traders were turning their attention to the problems among European banks.
"The euro is expected to continue to extend its losses against major currencies," they predicted.
Worries over whether the Europeans can contain the turmoil grew after the leaders of France,
Germany, Italy and Britain vowed Saturday to protect fragile banks but did not discuss a continent-wide financial rescue package. Given the various economic conditions in each of the eurozone member countries, "it looks difficult for authorities to take dramatic and quick action like the US." "Wall Street at this point is shifting its attention from whether Congress was going to act on the emergency stabilization bill to the realization that the economy is slowing significantly
faster than most analysts had expected."."The downturn has shifted from first gear to about third gear in about two weeks."
Be aware of retracement in wave III (extension in wave III) !!
Stochastic Oscillator in all time frame shows OverSold Area.
Current Price : 1.3772
Target : Pertama= 1.3590, Kedua=1.2802 diperoleh dari perhitungan fibo expansion.
Fundamental: The House of Rep US telah menyetujui bailout tinggal menunggu menjadi UU dan pelaksanaannya. Eurozone sedang mengalami krisis yang lebih buruk daripada yang sedang dihadapi US.
Technical : Stochastic Oscillator sudah mencapai OverSold (OS), jadi ada kemungkinan untuk terjadi lompatan pergerakan harga ke atas atau sideways movement sementara, menunggu perkembangan sentimen pasar. Tinggi-rendahnya lompatan harga tersebut akan ditentukan oleh news nanti pada saat sesi asia dan khususnya eropa . Bila merangkum semua news hingga saat ini (4:20AM) ada kecenderungan flat OS (OverSold yang berkepanjangan) artinya akan terjadi down-side movement yang panjang.
After a week of drama, the $700b bailout plan was finally approved by House on Friday. With Senate already approve the modified plan on Wednesday, US President Bush signed off the plan to ease the credit crunch that's now "threatening" the US economy. However, the markets are rather not convinced that this is the solution. Dow ended up 7.3%% lower to close the week. The news was clearly not enough to boost investors confidence. Dow indeed closed lower than Monday's low, where the historical 777 points fall occurred after House initially rejected the plan. S&P 500 also had it's worst weekly decline since Sep 01 and fell 9.4%.
Time: 14:10 WIB
Current Price: 1.3844
Target : 1.3744
Technical : Corrective mode, Zigzag. Could be combination corrective mode i.e. zigzag,triangle,etc. Beware for deep thrust to down side.
Use it with your own due dilligence..
Time : 9:15 WIB
Current Price : 185.70 (alpari)
Target : Short 183.50
Technical: Testing the new low 184.47 could be deeper.Wave B in TF daily.
Time: 9:15 WIB.
Current Price : 1.3840
Target : 1.3740 (100pts).Probabilitas harga turun hari ini lebih dari 65%. OPS and set your target wisely.
Fundamental: The EUR/USD fell to a 13-month low after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said 'the economic outlook is subject to increased downside risks, mainly stemming from a scenario of ongoing financial market tensions affecting the real economy more adversely than currently foreseen.'
Technical: The pair broke the long-term uptrend at 1.39-1.40, indicating the EUR/USD bull market is over and a protracted bear market is likely. There are supports at 1.37 and 1.35 and resistances at 1.40 and 1.43. There may be a test of the 1.40-area. If the employment report tomorrow is weak, we will try to open sell (go short) the pair on strength. Bila dilihat dari TF H1-H4 pair EURUSD mulai masuk wave 3.
Time: 20:50 WIB
Trader Type: Investor
Current Price : 1.3832
Target : 1.3632 (200pts)
EURUSD fundamental :
