EURUSD Analysis : Daily Projection - Asia Session: Thursday October 16, 2008 05:05WIB/22:05GMT

EURUSD Current Price: 1.3467

Intermediate Target : 1.3532 – 1.3500 on the upward and 1.3443 - 1.3418 on the downward (ranging).

Technical : This retracement of wave 4 in H1 should limited to 1.3532 and wave 5 will undergo to 1.3457 or more(1.3443 - 1.3418). In lower degree TF the waves now form a corrective patterns. In general she goes up first.

Fundamental : The Usd seems to be the currency of choice for risk averse investors, gaining across the majors. The EurUsd fell approximately 100 pips to the low range of 1.35, while the UsdJpy also retraced back to the high 100 price area. The GbpUsd slipped roughly 50 pips to the mid 1.73 area based following the general trend trading in the market place. Equity markets retracted in the US and Europe with the Dow down over 500pts, falling back below the 9000 level. Bond yields collapsed with the 2yr treasury tighter by 22bps at 1.59% and the 10yr in by 10bps at 3.98%. Commodities declined with the exception of gold which rose nearly 1% to 843, investors are clearly migrating to more secure assets in today’s session.
There was light data out of the Eurozone today, the Euro fell against the dollar which is consistent with the risk aversion trade we’ve seen recently. As the equity markets selloff, both the Euro and Cable follow suit, as well as oil which seems to be the new risk aversion. In the UK, employment data worsened with the ILO figures rising by 0.2% to an unemployment rate of 5.7%. Economists expect the unemployment to rise in the near-term with weaker corporate earnings and overall slowing growth. As economic fundamentals come back into play we are likely to see further declines throughout the G10.
The dollar displays a higher degree of correlation to price behavior in treasuries and equities, this trend is likely to continue until the market move towards a stage of stabilization. We hold a bullish stance on the Usd versus the majors, and a strong likelihood that central banks will be prompted to cut rates further closing the gap in yield differentials.