New Trend Confirmed

Get Down Make Love.....

MY NEW POSITION

Hey you!!! Look at MY LIVE POSITION...

Is it time to extreme deep-thrust?

Before we get the point better see what the fundamental says:

EURUSD Fundamental :

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The German economy, Europe's largest, contracted more than economists expected in the third quarter, pushing the nation into the worst recession in at least 12 years.
Gross domestic product dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent from the second quarter, when it fell 0.4 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists expected a 0.2 percent decline, the median of 40 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed. The economy last contracted this much over two consecutive quarters -- the technical definition of a recession -- in 1996.
German companies are struggling with dwindling export orders. Siemens AG, Europe's biggest engineering company, reported a profit decline today and plans to cut 16,750 jobs by 2010. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered its global forecast for the second time, saying the economy of its 30 members will contract 0.3 percent in 2009 after growing 1.4 percent this year.
``The German recession has begun in earnest and it's very serious,'' said Holger Schmieding, chief European economist at Bank of America Corp. in London. ``It raises the risk of a German contraction of more than 1 percent next year and we will have to revise down our forecast for the euro area as well.''

BRUSSELS, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The European Union cannot deal with the financial crisis effectively if multinational banks are regulated solely by their home countries, European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Thursday. Nowotny, who headed the rescue of Austrian bank BAWAG after a financial scandal two years ago, said he preferred a slow movement to a European Union-wide supervisor which gave a strong role for national regulators.

. …. until European Union countries can agree on a joint fund or binding commitments to bail out multinational banks, most regulation will have to remain nationally based. Better informal cooperation between national regulators would help deal with the difficulties of regulating multinational banks, he added. (Reporting by Marcin Grajewski and Ilona Wissenbach, writing by David Milliken, editing by Patrick Graham)

EURUSD Theory said :

WAVE MULTIPLES
Motive Wave Multiples Lesson 12 mentioned that when wave 3 is extended, waves 1 and 5 tend towards equality or a .618 relationship, as illustrated in Figure 01 a below. Actually, all three motive waves tend to be related by Fibonacci mathematics, whether by equality, 1.618 or 2.618 (whose inverses are .618 and .382). These impulse wave relationships usually occur in percentage terms. For instance, wave I from 1932 to 1937 gained 371.6%, while wave III from 1942 to 1966 gained 971.7%, or 2.618 times as much. Semilog scale is required to reveal these relationships. Of course, at small degrees, arithmetic and percentage scales produce essentially the same result, so that the number of points in each impulse wave reveals the same multiples.

pic 01 a b c

Another typical development is that wave 5's length is sometimes related by the Fibonacci ratio to the length of wave 1 through wave 3, as illustrated in pic 01 b, which illustrates the point with an extended fifth wave. .382 and .618 relationships occur when wave five is not extended. In those rare cases when wave 1 is extended, it is wave 2, quite reasonably, that often subdivides the entire impulse wave into the Golden Section, as shown in pic 01 c.

As a generalization that subsumes some of the observations we have already made, unless wave 1 is extended, wave 4 often divides the price range of an impulse wave into the Golden Section. In such cases, the latter portion is .382 of the total distance when wave 5 is not extended, as shown in pic 02 a, and .618 when it is, as shown in pic 02 b.
This guideline is somewhat loose in that the exact point within wave 4 that effects the subdivision varies. It can be its start, end or extreme counter-trend point. Thus, it provides, depending on the circumstances, two or three closely-clustered targets for the end of wave 5. This guideline explains why the target for a retracement following a fifth wave often is doubly indicated by the end of the preceding fourth wave and the .382 retracement point. (quote EWP p:136-137)

pic 02 a b

EURUSD Projection :
Current Price : 1.2751
As you can see that wave I and wave III are normal impulses, there is only alternation in each. The highest wave IV on 38.2% (1.3301) is normal retracement for this wave. We can expect the wave V to be extended.

According to the theory we may conclude this pattern is going go down very deep to 1.618% (see pic 01 b) which end to 0.7509 (what the hell..@#%!!).


But our policy is taking short of this gradually
#1 go short to 1.2637
#2 go short to 1.2330
If it breaks the lowest we go short to 1.1736 and then wait for any confirmation.
And please remember this, from the current price wave IV still have a chance to go up to 1.3882 depend on any news released.
Use it with your DOD....and breakin' thru to the other side...yeaaah.!!

Rate Cuts Do More Harm Than Good

Overall: Rate cuts from the BoE, ECB and SNB sent stock markets into a tailspin, which heightened sentiment for the dollar and yen against the higher-yeilders. One trend noticed as of late is that the Swiss franc (in part because it yields 100 basis points more than the dollar) suffers as equity markets are sold. In U.S. economic news, productivity, which measures employee output on an hourly basis, increased 1.1% on an annualized basis in the third quarter. Labor costs increased at a 3.6% annualized rate in the quarter. "The slowdown in productivity is especially worrisome in the present economic environment," said Matthew Carniol, chief currency strategist at TheLFB-forex.com. "As productivity slows with demand, it implies that employers may cut back on workers at a faster pace in order to reduce costs."

EURUSD Technical :

Go sliding down to minimum 1.2643 - 1.2468(ranging) Max to 1.2181(this extreme point!). Wave 3 looks like going to be expanded so we can expect more than 100% expansion.For safety this could go down to 1.2323,but who knows? Maybe more. Be aware of contracted throw-over in extended-wave 3.
BUT if the wave breaks upper channel line, this formation could be another corrective pattern (zigzag) and all the counting above will be invalid.
All this technical depends on news released in the following day(s).
Use it with your DOD. Good luck and have nice pips....Thank Ya'll and I was born to be wild.

The ISM report indicated the overall economy contracted in October for the first time in 83 months as the rate of the decline in the manufacturing sector became significantly faster. The overall reading (38.9) was the lowest since September 1982. Inflationary pressures receded sharply for the month as demand waned, with the prices index (Actual 37, Expected 49.0, Previous 53.5)) falling to the lowest since December 2001. Export orders contracted for the first time following 70 months of growth.
The Euro (Eur/Usd) had traded higher by as much as 150 pips in the overnight sessions but found strong resistance at the 1.2900 area. Once in N.Y., the pair fell as oil declined and traders showed little enthusiasm for risk.

The PMI showed the euro-area manufacturing side of the economy contracted for the fifth consecutive month. The October number of 41.1 is slightly smaller than analysts' expectations of 41.3. The Euro-zone PMI survey is at a multi-year low, pointing out that the economic contraction may be stronger and even more prolonged than previously thought.